Choices for Saints-Jets and Bills-Bucs based on expert ratings for week 14

Credit:

Billie Weiss / Getty Images. Pictured: Bills QB Josh Allen celebrates with his teammates

  • Our expert considers these two clashes – Saints vs. Jets and Bills vs. Buccaneers – as the best games based on his power ratings.
  • Check back to this story before each kickoff of the NFL Playlist for Week 14 for additional expert picks based on updated NFL odds.

Action’s director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest benefits based on his NFL power ratings. He has an all-time record of 490-381-9 (56%) on NFL bets he has tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.

Make sure you log in to Convince me! Live at 11 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games kick off to hear Koerner’s top picks – and other pundits – for Week 14.


Take
Saints-Jets Under 43
Best book
Time
1 p.m. ET

I locked the underside for this game at 43.5 earlier in the week after the Saints hinted Taysom Hill would remain the squad’s starter, despite playing with an injured middle finger on his hand. launch.

I expect them to have a very busy game plan and rely on their defense to secure a victory over the Jets. Their defense should have no trouble slowing down Zach Wilson, who will be deprived of his two best wide receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, who have been placed in the injured reserve.

I would project this closer to 40.5 and would bet at 42.

Take
Invoices +3.5 at Buccaneers
Best book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

I like to buy low on the Bills after their 10-14 loss to the Patriots on Monday night, where extreme winds saw the Pats win with just three attempts.

The Bucs’ defense is solid against the run, but the Bills lead the league in early passing frequency in neutral playing situations. They are more than willing to lean on Josh Allen and attack the Tampa defense in the air. My “expected wins” model has the Bills ranked closer to a 9-3 team, meaning they’re playing much better than their 7-5 record would indicate. Much of that would be down to their 0-4 record in one-point games this season. As always, we should generally expect teams to be around 0.500 in this statistic, so significantly higher / lower teams are often over / underrated.

I’m aware of how good Tom Brady and the Bucs are, but this game is a lot closer than the market treats it. I projected this as Bucs -2.5, so the fact that we’re getting +3.5 here is too good to pass up. The most likely outcome of this game is that Bucs wins by threes, and we would win with that outcome of +3.5.

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Lance B. Holton