Expert picks on Patriots vs. Dolphins, Giants vs. Titans

Sean Koerner is Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics. Follow him in the Action app to get all his picks instantly as he makes them.

Patriots vs. Dolphins – Under 46.5 (DraftKings)

The Patriots offense could get off to a slow start after Josh McDaniels left for the Raiders. Joe Judge and Matt Patricia were tasked with coming up with their new offensive scheme and the results were sloppy throughout camp and preseason.

In Week 3 of exhibition play, the New England offense had its dress rehearsal against the Raiders’ second-string defense. The first team attack played four practices which resulted in: Punt, interception, punt, field goal. One of the reasons the offense may start slowly is because they will try to implement more running plays outside the zone, which will require some adjustment for the offensive line.

The Dolphins offense will be much more explosive under new head coach Mike McDaniel. The addition of the game’s most dynamic playmaker, Tyreek Hill, doesn’t hurt either.

However, the Dolphins could also be a little more balanced after ranking seventh in passing frequency at the start of last season. Having bolstered their offensive line with the additions of Terron Armstead and Connor Williams – and also adding RBs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert – it’s clear they’ll be running the ball more this season.

The 46.5 total seems way too high given the Patriots’ offensive struggles could allow the Dolphins to have a more conservative game plan on offense. Also, the weather could be an issue as the temperature is expected to be above 90 degrees, with additional potential for rain. This could force these teams to play at a slower pace.

I would bet that up to 45.5.

Giants (+5.5) vs. Titans (FanDuel)

The Giants are a team I’m optimistic about and I’ve already locked in their win total at 6.5.

I think Brian Daboll will be able to bring out the best version of Daniel Jones as he brings a more innovative analytical approach to the Giants organization. After having the second toughest schedule last year, they will have the easiest schedule in 2022 (according to my power ratings).

They could also benefit from a better injury chance this season after missing the sixth most adjusted games lost to injury (per Football Outsiders) – although they have already gotten off to a shaky start with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari who are expected to miss Week 1. However, this may be the first time in Daniel Jones’ career that the entire starting offense has been sound.

The Titans are a team I’m bearish on and bet on them to finish under 9.5 wins. Their offense will take a step back this season following the trade of AJ Brown, and his potential replacement, rookie Treylon Burks, doesn’t seem close to being able to fill Brown’s shoes just yet. Tennessee also enjoyed a ton of scoring luck last season, going 6-2 in such games. Harold Landry and Elijah Molden are both out for the Titans, which should help offset the Giants’ injuries along their defensive line.

I love that two teams that I plan to go in different directions this year are going against each other in Week 1. I’m all over the Giants +5.5 here and I’d bet it goes down to +4, 5.

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Lance B. Holton