How to Bet Commanders vs Lions Total, Cardinals vs Raiders Spread

Sean Koerner is Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics. Follow him in the Action app to get all his picks instantly as he makes them.

NFL Week 2 Picks

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Less than 48.5
1 p.m. ET
Cardinals +5.5
4:25 p.m. ET
Take
Less than 48.5
best book
Time
1 p.m. ET

The total for this game opened at 46.5, but the market bet it down to 48.5 thanks to 80% tickets and 86% money coming from overs.

That’s not too surprising, given that both teams’ games topped the total last week. The Lions scored a TD on each of their four red-zone trips, while the Commanders scored a TD on both.

I think the market is getting a little too excited about two teams that scored a TD on 100% of their red zone drives last week. I would expect both to score around a 55% clip going forward.

The Lions ran the ball down second on first down in a neutral play scenario. Although they had to scrap that game plan after the Eagles built a double-digit lead, I expect the Lions to stick to a heavy game plan against Washington, which allowed the Jaguars to average 6.8 yards per carry last week.

However, the Lions might not be very effective this week as LG Jonah Jackson and C Frank Ragnow are expected to miss the game. It’s a brutal blow to an offensive line that also lost RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai in early September.

Meanwhile, COs could opt for a more conservative game plan this week after Carson Wentz threw two misguided interceptions last week that nearly got the Jaguars back and winning. Other than those mistakes, Wentz looked great. It’s always a reminder that he will eventually make a fatal mistake to put his team in a bind.

I expect a lower score game and heavier than the market. Also, I guess both of these offenses cool down a bit in the red zone.

I project that closer to the 46.5 open and would bet it would go down to 47.5.


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Take
Cardinals +5.5
best book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Week 1 was a comedy of errors for the Cardinals.

Not only did they have to face Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but they also had to do it shorthanded without several key players. To make matters worse, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph made the inexcusable decision to blitz Patrick Mahomes on more than 50% of his dropouts, the league’s highest rate in Week 1. Sure enough, he paid dearly for it. .

I guess the silver lining in all of this is that it’s impossible for Joseph to have a worse game plan than last week heading into a Week 2 game against the Raiders.

More importantly, the Cardinals appear to be bringing JJ Watt, Trayvon Mullen and Jalen Thompson back on defense, and LG Justin Pugh is heading in the right direction to get dressed after leaving last week’s game with a neck injury. Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and Andy Isabella, but that shouldn’t have much of an impact on the spread as they still have plenty of offensive weapons in James Conner, Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz.

Meanwhile, for the Raiders, C Andre James, LB Denzel Perryman and safety Trevon Moehrig have all been ruled out.

I project this closer to Raiders -3 and think they are giving up way too many points here at 5.5.


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Lance B. Holton