Najee Harris Rushing Yards highlights Thursday night’s best soccer games

Credit:

Joe Sargent / Getty Images. Pictured: Steelers RB Najee Harris

  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings Thursday Night football kicks off shortly, so get started now.
  • Sean Koerner’s favorite accessory includes Najee Harris, who will run behind a rutted offensive line in a short week.
  • Get his favorite TNF player accessory below.

Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player prop for Steelers-Vikings on Thursday Night Football. He has an all-time record of 490-379-9 (56%) on NFL bets that he has tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.


TNF Accessories: Steelers vs. Vikings

Najee Harris under 72.5 rushing yards (-110)

There are several reasons why I’m on Harris for tonight:

1) The Steelers are 3-point underdogs, which means they’re more likely to have a heavy passing play script. They have the fourth-highest success rate when lagging behind, which means it shouldn’t be surprising to find that Harris didn’t exceed that number in any of their five losses. I also love that the Vikings cover at -3, which means I project the odds of the Steelers having a lagging play script as more likely than the market.

2) The Steelers will be without LG BJ Finney and G / T Joe Haeg, which means John Leglue will be making his first career debut. Their offensive line has already struggled to create running lanes for Harris this season, so having to reshuffle the line won’t help. I can see them using check-downs at Harris as an extension of the rush game.

3) The Vikings will host LB Eric Kendricks again after a one-game absence. He’s at the heart of that defense, so I expect them to bounce back from last week’s loss to the previously winless Lions and play a lot better as a result.

4) Harris dominated the rush attempts out of the backfield. However, over the short week, we might see savegames like Benny Snell and Kalen Ballage spell out Harris on a drive or two, which would also help the less.

Finally, my simulation makes him finish tonight’s game with a median closer to 63.5 rushing yards (out of 18.5 running attempts), giving it about a 62% chance of staying below 72.5 meters.

Yds On Below
63.5 50% 50%
64.5 48% 52%
65.5 47% 53%
66.5 46% 54%
67.5 44% 56%
68.5 43% 57%
69.5 42% 58%
70.5 41% 59%
71.5 39% 61%
72.5 38% 62%

I would bet this under up to 69.5 yards.

To take: Less than 72.5 Rush Yards (-110) at DraftKings or FanDuel

How would you rate this article?

Lance B. Holton