Value of bets on a Jalen Wilson Under and Christian Braun Over (April 4)
Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, reveals his best player accessories for the national championship between Kansas and North Carolina. He has a 35-16 (69%) record on 2022 NCAA Tournament props which he tracks in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.
Each of the following picks is based, in part, on discrepancies between the player projections created by our predictive analytics team and the odds available at the time of writing. You can find more potential benefits with our Action Labs props tool.
Christian Braun Over 12.5 points (-110)
With Leaky Black likely to be on Ochai Agbaji and Armando Bacot likely on David McCormack, Braun should benefit from this game. North Carolina doesn’t force a lot of turnovers or send opponents to the free throw line often, so Kansas should see an increase in field goal attempts. It will only help a player like Braun, who doesn’t rely on the line to score.
Braun has given up 12.5 points in 67% of his games this season, and with our projection of 14.5 points, we give him a 60% chance of surpassing that number again.
Take: Over 12.5 (-110) on PointsBet | Bet on: -130
Jalen Wilson Less than 8.5 rebounds (+105)
This sub is not for the faint of heart.
Wilson has crushed his rebounding prop in four straight games, and in each case, our projections suggested potential value on overs. But this time, our projections indicate potential value for him to stay under.
It’s all game-based
North Carolina is a very good rebounding team – the Tar Heels are second in defensive rebounding rate in the nation (thanks to Armando Bacot). Kansas will likely want to give David McCormack as many minutes as he can handle (probably in the 28-30 range), which will likely eat away at Wilson’s rebounds.
Wilson will also likely guard Brady Manek, who shoots a ton of 3s, so Wilson might not be able to get a rebound on a handful of shots.
We predict Wilson will be closing in on eight rebounds with a 58% chance of going under.
Take: Under 8.5 (+105) at BetMGM | Bet on: +100
» More accessories to bet for Kansas-UNC
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